Big 12 Breakdown and The Big Question For Each School : #8 TCU
By Cade Welty and Sean A Dillon
We’re breaking down the Big 12 as we get closer to the 2026 season. We’re breaking down each team getting closer and closer to #1. Today we look at Baylor.
#16 – Iowa State #15 – Colorado #14 – Kansas #13 – cincinnati #12 – Oklahoma State #11 West Virginia #10 UCF #9 Baylor
#8 – TCU #7 – ?
TCU: is it Top 4 in the Big 12 or Bust?
The 2025 TCU Hornfrogs saw their season end with “River Walk-Off” playing in an overtime win against USC in the Alamo Bowl to give them back-to-back 9 win seasons. Under head coach Sonny Dykes, the Hornfrogs have seen three 9-win seasons and a national championship runner-up in 2022.
Sonny Dykes has won a bowl game in every season they reach eligibility. Yet the Hornfrogs have not won a Big 12 title since 2014 as they were co-champions with Baylor. Since the return of the title game (2017) they only have appeared twice in 2017 and 2022 with no trophies to show for it. Dykes, in his 4 seasons at TCU, has had an overall record of 36-17, which is the most in the Big 12 since 2022, but in Big 12 play, Dyke’s record has been 26-16.
Where does it go wrong?
Like some teams in the Big 12, the Hornfrogs started off slowly in conference games with back-to-back years starting 3-2. The 2025 team dropped two games in a row in early November, which put an end to Big 12 title hopes. In 2024, the slow start became a “what if moment” as they finished with a 3-game winning streak to go 6-3 in conference play.
Well, the offseason for the frogs was mainly spent sharing comments on former QB Josh Hoover, who decided to enter his name in the portal for the 2026 season. Hoover would end up joining the Indiana Hoosiers after seeing what they did in 2025 with Mendoza; it makes it a no-brainer for Hoover.
Dykes wasn’t happy with the QBs decision by leaving his comments on his play while at TCU.
“I think Josh started 31 games here as a quarterback, and he turned the ball over 42 times in those 31 starts.” Hoover’s new head coach Curt Cignetti responded with his own take on TCU and Hoover.
“When Josh got here, he met his two new best friends… great defense and a perfect run game, and he was never the same after that.”
After the Hoover drama, the Hornfrogs look to shift their focus to their new transfer QB, Jaden Craig, from Harvard. Craig threw for 2,869 yards with 25 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. From a tweet by StevenMJohnson_ on X.com told everyone about Sonny Dykes and how “he appreciates how self-aware Jaden Craig is and how much he enjoys the process of playing quarterback. Said he knows his strengths and weaknesses.”
TCU is giving their new QB a solid offensive line backed by star transfer Noah McKinney from Oklahoma State and returning two starters from last year in Ben Taylor and Cade Bennnett. TCU will also get the player who scored the “River Walk-Off” in Jermy Payne, who is poised and ready for a breakout junior season. In 2025, Payne rushed for 623 yards and 5 TDs on 110 carries. Payne will join a new offensive system under new OC Gordon Sammis that is built off slowing down the game by running the ball. Which should lead to a breakout year for the RB. There is also high hope for the WR room as they get back returning WR Jordan Dwyer, who had a productive 2025 campaign and looks to take the number one role for the offense in 2026.
The defense of the hornfrogs looks to seek improvement from their 2025 season after allowing 25 points per game. TCU will rely again on a stout secondary with Vernon Glover and Jamel Johnson returning for another season. They also brought in 3 solid transfers at corner to create one of the Big 12’s top units. The defensive line will stay relatively the same with three DL returners to go alongside EDGE transfer Cheta Ofili from Texas Tech. The part of the defense that will be interesting is the linebacker room with a full retool of transfers.
For TCU, another 9-4 season will be considered a success by the industry, but for the team in Fort Worth, they hope to finally win the Big 12 title in Arlington after starting the season in a different country. Another year of coming up short or wasted potential and the seats will begin to become warm even if the sun isn’t out.
TCU 2026 Football Schedule :
Conference Games *
8/29/2026,vs North Carolina, Time : 11:00 A.M. CT
9/12/2026, Grambling State : 7:00 P.M. CT
9/19/2026, Arkansas State , Time : 7:00 P.M. CT
9/26/2026, at UCF *, Time : TBA
10/3/2026, BYU *, Time : TBA
10/17/2026, at Baylor* , Time : TBA
10/24/2026, West Virginia * , Time : TBA
10/31/2026, Kansas *, Time : TBA
11/6/2026, at Arizona *, Time : 9:15 P.M CT
11/14/2026, Kansas State * , Time : TBA
11/21/2026, Utah * , Time : TBA
11/26/2026 , at Texas Tech * , Time : 7:00 P.M CT
Sean’s Thoughts:
Welcome back to the series as we talk about the Purple Aggies today. Yes, time to talk about TCU who faces North Carolina in Dublin and had to go to the Ivy League for their quarterback. Yes, fight fiercely Harvard’s Jaden Craig comes in to take over with a new pro-style offense. Yawn. No depth, no experience and a QB from a school where the rivalry is just called “The Game” and one of the teams doesn’t have painted end zones. TCU has voids everywhere and is depending on transfers from FIU, South Alabama and the Colorado School of Mimes. (Sorry that’s supposed to be MINES). TCU’s transfer portal strategy might actually leave fans speechless.
Jet-lagging your entire roster to Ireland in Week 0 to play North Carolina just to come back and host Grambling State isn’t a schedule; it’s a circus. If Jaden Craig throws two picks in Dublin, that flight back to Fort Worth is going to feel longer than the Ivy League offseason.
Since 2023 Dykes is 13-7 at home versus 8-9 on the road. So the gift that Sonny Dykes got from Big 12 schedule builders was only 4 true conference road games. Too bad they are against Baylor, Texas Tech, Arizona and UCF.
Rebuilding an entire Big 12 linebacker room out of the transfer portal late shoppers list is like assembling IKEA furniture with missing instructions. Good luck stopping Utah and Kansas State in November when your middle defense is still introducing themselves to each other in the huddle.
“That’s right. Dunn was over Unger and I was over Dunn. So, you see, both Dunn and I were under Oveur, even though I was under Dunn. Dunn was over Unger, and I was under Dunn.”
Cade asked earlier if it was Top 4 or bust in the Big 12 for Sonny Dykes. Well, he might win 8 games, but it’ll be something that Jamie Hyneman and Adam Savage won’t have to be called in for.