Big 12 Breakdown and The Big Question For Each School : #9 Baylor
By Cade Welty and Sean A Dillon
We’re breaking down the Big 12 as we get closer to the 2026 season. We’re breaking down each team getting closer and closer to #1. Today we look at Baylor.
#16 – Iowa State #15 – Colorado #14 – Kansas #13 – cincinnati #12 – Oklahoma State #11 West Virginia #10 UCF #9 Baylor
#8 – ?
Baylor : Will DJ Lagway be that guy?
The Baylor Bears have had an up and down history under current head coach Dave Aranda. A 36-37 record for the Bears during that time frame has seen a Big 12 title win and Sugar Bowl victory over Ole Miss. But since that 2021 season the Bears have battled the injury bug and average football.
In 2025 after an 8-5 year the Bears looked poised to be a player in the Big 12 but they could not live up to expectations by finishing 5-7 and a 3-6 conference record.
Offensive talent wasn’t the issue for the bears as they scored 31 points per game as it was good enough for 33rd nationally (FBS). But in the sport of football you have to play defense which the bears struggled at doing in 2025. They allowed 32 points per game which ranked them 122nd out of 136 FBS schools. This was a massive issue since Aranda’s whole background has been getting and using defensive talent to create top units in college football. The 2025 season also marked the 4th losing season for Baylor in Aranda’s 6 seasons as head coach. Which has made Aranda’s seat very hot with the possibility that his time in Waco is coming to a close.
So where does DJ Lagway fit into all of this?
Well the once top rated QB in the class of 2024 has not lived up to the expectations that were set on him. In his two seasons with the Florida Gators he has thrown for 4,179 yards, 28 touchdowns and 23 interceptions on 328 attempts. Lagway looks for a different stat and storyline with the Bears.
Big 12 Media Days:
He already has the trust and confidence from Aranda as during Big 12 Media Days, there was a sentiment shared on how Aranda felt about Lagway moving from Florida to Baylor.
“It felt to me like kind of a straight jacket, kind of tight, kind of closed up and felt like he wanted to be free. And I feel like he felt Baylor is a place that he could play free, really kind of be free.”
Aranda also spoke on the optimism that they can improve Lagway
“I think, allows us to really impact the player that he can be and excited for what’s to come. You know, there’s a huge chip on his shoulder.”
The Bears have been known to produce quality college QBs with both Blake Shapen and Sawyer Roberston performing well in the Baylor system. With Roberstond being the more recent starter there as he threw for 3,681 yards, 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
What’s a successful season?
With Lagway joining the Bears what does a successful season look like from the transfer QB?
It isn’t winning the Heisman or winning the Big 12 OPOY, it is simply limiting turnovers and having a better TD to INT ratio. In his collegiate career, his ratio is 1.2 TD/INT which means he almost throws a pick for every touchdown. Another area which is less out of his control but still needs to be worked on is the amount of sacks he has taken. Lagway has been sacked 32 times with 19 sacks taken in 2025. Which for Baylor, this could be the area to help the young QB but instead in 2025 the Bears allowed Roberston to be sacked 22 times. As their offensive line was the only blemish on the high scoring offense. If Baylor can protect Lagway, then he already has a greater chance to improve but if they can’t and you are looking at Florida 2.0 but this time the swamp is the humidity in Waco. Lagway has all of the measurables to be a top passer in the Big 12 and nationally but he will need real development from coaches who care to reach those heights.
Baylor returned only one productive starter on the offense for 2026, with offensive lineman Kaden Sieracki and outside that, the whole unit is brand new. For their new QB, the Bears did bring in an offensive weapon in Colorado’s WR Dre’lon Miller, who has the upside to fit into an explosive pass game in Waco. Baylor mainly spent time in the portal building a brand-new defense with only 4 returning starters and three of them being DBs. Their top goal for the defense was DL Indiana transfer Hosea Wheeler, who is 6 ‘3 and 300 pounds. They also added 4 safeties since their whole position group had been weakened after a solid year as the safety net for them. The issue for Baylor was that they allowed 197 rushing yards a game, which ranked at the bottom of all the FBS.
If Baylor has another disappointing season, then Dave Aranda might be on his way out. But for now the Baylor line will run onto the field filled with hope and optimism as DJ Lagway looks to find a home in the Big 12.
Baylor 2026 Football Schedule :
Conference Games *
9/5/2026, vs Auburn, Time : 2:30 P.M. CT
9/12/2026, Prairie View A&M : 7:00 P.M. CT
9/19/2026, Louisiana Tech, Time : 3:00 P.M. CT
9/26/2026, Colorado *, Time : TBA
10/3/2026, at Arizona State *, Time : TBA
10/17/2026, TCU * , Time : TBA
10/24/2026, at Kansas * , Time : TBA
10/30/2026, at UCF *, Time : 6:30 P.M. CT
11/7/2026, Iowa State *, Time : TBA
11/14/2026, at BYU * , Time : TBA
11/21/2026, Texas Tech * , Time : TBA
11/28/2026, at Houston * , Time : TBA
Sean’s Thoughts:
As we get closer to the top half of this conference, we still run right into the mess that is the Baylor Bears. Good news for them, the schedule makers practically gave them second base this year.
They managed to avoid the absolute scariest venues in the Big 12, landing all their biggest drama: the Revivalry against TCU, plus Iowa State and Texas Tech right in the middle of that infamous Waco traffic jam. Sure, it’s not all kittens and rainbows considering they still have to drag themselves out to Provo and Orlando, but getting a bye week right before facing TCU? You’d usually have to pay extra for a favor like that.
At the end of the day, I’m sticking with the Bears grinding out 7 wins. It’s just enough to keep them painfully relevant for another year, guaranteeing their fans will continue pulling their hair out over Dave Aranda. But hey, why not keep the ride going?
“I think that’s the thing with coaching, call it recruiting… they talk about acquiring players, getting rid of players… and the whole thing underneath all that is they make them think ‘they’re one of us.’ But do you have to do that to win? That sucks.” – Aranda
After all, he’s a nice guy.