Big 12 Breakdown and The Big Question For Each School : #10 UCF
By Cade Welty and Sean A Dillon
We’re breaking down the Big 12 as we get closer to the 2026 season. We’re breaking down each team getting closer and closer to #1. Today we look at UCF.
#16 – Iowa State #15 – Colorado #14 – Kansas #13 – cincinnati #12 – Oklahoma State #11 West Virginia #10 UCF
UCF : Can they break past three conference wins?
The “2017 national champs”, or so they claim, have seen a major decline in the football program since joining the Big 12. The once group of 5 powerhouses is now looking for the same year-two turnaround from head coach Scott Frost, who took UCF from 6-7 to 13-0 in his second season during his first stint with the program.
Since joining the Big 12 in 2023, the UCF Knights have averaged 2.3 conference wins per season, which is tied for the worst conference win percentage of .259 with Oklahoma State during that span. Keep in mind Oklahoma State has not won a conference game since 2023, but somehow, there is a different sentiment with the Knights.
Before the Big 12, they were the top team in the American Conference with an average of 5.7 conference wins per season. Keep in mind the Americans only have 8 conference games per season compared in the Big 12, which has 9 per season.
So where did it go wrong?
Keeping the talent in the house. Most programs have struggled with keeping high value players in their program for 4 years, but UCF has struggled to keep their players after two years. The Knights have a very similar situation to Colorado in terms of swapping players every season. In the 2026 portal 34 players left the program and the Knights have struggled to keep top players from transferring, with players like Lee Hunter and John Walker going to top programs.
Unfortunately for the Knights, the high school classes have also taken a huge hit since bringing in Scott Frost with back-to-back bottom three classes in the Big 12. For Frost, his average class rank with UCF is 64th, which shows how you slowly become a below-average program in the modern era of college football. Talent leaves after you develop it and then the young guys aren’t good enough to compete at the top of the Big 12. The Knights have a different belief and recruiting idea heading into 2026 and beyond.
Big 12 Media Days:
“Year one at UCF, I’d come off the field sweaty and lose my voice every practice…the standards and expectations the players have for each other are higher than a year ago,” Frost said on the SonsofUCF Podcast.
Frost also stated, “I love our depth and overall talent compared to last year,” when speaking at Big 12 Media days.
Speaking of the overall talent, the Knights brought in some experienced offensive pieces for OC Steve Cooper. The first big get for them was JMU transfer QB Alonza Barnett III, who started in their CFP game against Oregon this past season. Barnett threw for 2,806 yards, 23 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Frost is confident in his transfer QB, “It’s going to be nice and refreshing to have a guy to look at and everybody knows he’s the guy.”
Roster:
UCF will pair the QB with a dynamic backfield runner in transfer Duke Watson from Louisville. Watson didn’t receive much playing time in 2025 due to sharing the snap count with Issac Brown and battling an injury that lingered all year. The Knights’ offense won’t be a worry, but instead, for their second year it will be the defense. After losing a pair of NFL pass rushers in Malachi Lawrence and Nyjalik Kelly, it will be hard to replace that production. A practically brand-new defensive front will be an interesting wrinkle to keep track of during fall camp, but they do retain one of the best pass defenses with CB Jayden Bellamy and Braedan Marshall locking in opposing WRs.
For UCF, it isn’t about dominating the conference like they did in America. It is about finding a way to continue to develop talent and keeping it. A conference record of 4-5 would be considered a huge improvement and the first time they broke past the three win total in Big 12 play. Scott Frost has done it once, but can he do it again in Orlando?
UCF 2026 Football Schedule :
Conference Games *
9/3/2026, Bethune-Cookman : 6:00 P.M. CT
9/12/2026, at Pittsburgh, Time : 2:30 P.M. CT
9/19/2026, Georgia State, Time : 6:00 P.M. CT
9/26/2026, TCU *, Time : TBA
10/3/2026, at Houston *, Time : TBA
10/10/2026, at Oklahoma State * , Time : TBA
10/24/2026, BYU * , Time : TBA
10/30/2026, Baylor *, Time : 6:30 P.M. CT
11/7/2026, at Kansas *, Time : TBA
11/14/2026, Arizona State * , Time : 9:15 P.M. CT
11/20/2026, Iowa State * , Time : 5:00 P.M. CT
11/28/2026, at Colorado * , Time : TBA
Sean’s Thoughts:
The last time Scott Frost hit Year 2 in Orlando, he rode a magic carpet all the way to a self-proclaimed “national championship.”
THIS JUST IN:
the Big 12 isn’t a fairy tale, it’s a slaughterhouse meat grinder. Expecting the Knights to pull a Roy Hobbs and play the natural again is pure fantasy. They’re staring down six of the conference’s top nine teams on the 2026 slate. Betting on them to win the bulk of those is like lighting your mortgage on fire at Churchill Downs.
“I should have been a farmer.” – Pop Fisher
Back in the AAC, UCF could sprint past everyone on pure athleticism and sweep their deficiencies under the magic carpet. But in the Big 12 those same problems will just turn their games into track meets where the defense gets gassed by halftime. The defense kept some veteran talent in the secondary, but this offense is nowhere ready for a prime time.
Frost had to rebuild the roster from scratch in 2025. Let’s not forget the golden rule of the “Scott Frost Experience” in Lincoln: he couldn’t win a one-score game to save his life. If he can’t fix his fourth-quarter decision-making this time around, the Knights are heading straight back to the teacups because it’s a small world after all.