Big 12 Breakdown and The Big Question For Each School : #16 Iowa State

Iowa State: Can you keep the program alive?

Story by Cade Welty and Sean A Dillon

In 2024, the Cyclones set a program record for wins in a season with 11 wins after their Pop-Tarts Bowl victory under head coach Matt Campbell. In the almost two years since, the Cyclones look completely different going into 2026.

Longtime head coach Matt Campbell would announce his departure from the program to take the Penn State head coaching job instead. With the news of this announcement, Iowa state saw a mass exodus into the winter portal with 154 total transfers and 103 of them leaving all according to On3. With the majority of the top players leaving to join their head coach over in State College, Pennsylvania to be a part of the Big Ten conference.

Iowa State also suffered in the coaching department with an entirely brand new staff as well after the hiring of new head coach Jimmy Rogers. He spent one season as Washington State’s head coach going 6-6 in his lone season at Washington State, but he has experience in rebuilding rosters. The 2025 Cougars also suffered a major roster shake up where they welcomed 75 newcomers with Rogers able to reach bowl eligibility with that roster. The Cyclones also will see the retirement of their AD, Jamie Pollard, on June 30, 2027, or sooner if a replacement is found. Which signifies a new era in Ames, Iowa for the Cyclones.

What do we expect for the future?

Well head coach Jimmy Rogers is confident in the roster they have built but understands the curiosity of how they will play.

“There’s a lot of curiosity about our roster but I’m very confident in the players we’ve been able to bring in. We’ll be very competitive”

Rogers has been able to back up the confidence with his high school recruiting class for Iowa State. As they have put together their best class score (86.27) since 2022, according to Bill Seals. He has also said that he is finding players with speed over having just big players. Which is a style change from the Campbell way of doing things but in a new era maybe that is good for them.

There is a firm belief the program is still trending towards the top, with most outlets saying they will pick the over on wins, which is put at 5.5 total wins for the 2026 season.

Now a rebuilding year wouldn’t equal the death of a program but rather show a change in doing things. Unfortunately for Ames, Iowa, the team is returning zero starters from 2025. Jaylen Raynor will be the new QB for 2026 as he transferred from Arkansas State. Cyclone fans should be familiar with the QB as he had 302 total yards with one touchdown and an inception against Iowa State. The whole roster is brand new but with speed and agility being at the forefront we can expect a flashy style of football. The biggest concern isn’t how the QB will play or the weapons he has, it is about the line of scrimmage. The offensive line takes time to gel and it is crucial for games played with one another to really see a solid unit. But for the fans of Iowa State a good way to see a benchmark for this team would be the 2025 Washington State Cougars.

With a majority of the new talent in Ames coming from Rogers’ previous school the only way we can expect the team to look is based on some of the stats for the Cougars. The defense is mainly filled with Washington State players from last year and that unit was ranked 27th in defense by allowing 20.2 points per game. The offense is what struggled in 2025 with the 106th scoring offense at 22.5 points per game.

If Rogers gets solid QB play and the offensive line has time to gel, the 2026 Iowa State Cyclones might not be as bad as people have predicted. But getting over the 5.5 wins prediction in a solid Big 12 will be a tough task for the new look Cyclones.

Iowa State 2026 Football Schedule :

Conference Games *

9/5/2026, Southeast Missouri, Time : 12:00 P.M. CT
9/12/2026, at Iowa, Time : 6:30 P.M. CT
9/19/2026, Bowling Green , Time : 11:00 A.M. CT
9/26/2026, Utah *, Time : TBA
10/3/2026, West Virginia *, Time : TBA
10/9/2026, BYU * , Time : TBA
10/24/2026, at Arizona * , Time : TBA
10/31/2026, Oklahoma State *, Time : TBA
11/7/2026, at Baylor *, Time : TBA
11/14/2026, Cincinnati * , Time : TBA
11/21/2026, at UCF * , Time : TBA
11/28/2026,Kansas State * , Time : TBA

Sean’s thoughts:

Let’s be honest about Iowa State: this isn’t a transition year, but a total foundation rebuild.

Matt Campbell left Iowa State and took its core, heart, and soul with him. New head coach Jimmy Rogers inherits a depleted depth chart and a schedule that offers zero mercy. Expecting more than two non-conference wins with a trip to Iowa on the slate is pure delusion for the Cyclone faithful, and 2–3 Big 12 wins is the absolute ceiling. They aren’t 2024–25 Oklahoma State yet, but they’re closer than any Iowa State fan wants to admit.

I have them at 4-8, with home wins over Cincinnati and Oklahoma State. Ames is still scary, but this roster is out of gas in the middle of a cornfield.